The revolutionaries who founded our nation 250 years ago did so with the hope that they were building something better, and the knowledge that this was an experiment. Current events have left many feeling dispirited and disenfranchised, but even when things are going wrong there’s still room for the same hope the founders had. If enough of us are willing to take an active role by speaking out, standing up, and exercising our right to vote, we can make positive changes, the kind with the power to move us in the direction of the promise made in the preamble to the Constitution: “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America. Those have always been lofty goals and right now some of them seem increasingly out of reach, but no one ever said that achieving those things would be easy. In the words of Martin Luther King, Jr., “the arc of the moral universe is long, but bends towards justice. It’s still a goal worth pursuing. Happy birthday, America! Cover design by Urs Baur.
Summer is officially here, and so is El Niño. This chaotic weather pattern gets its name from the Christ child—El Niño de Navidad—because it often manifests in midwinter, but instead of being a sweet and gentle child, it behaves more like a monstrous toddler, throwing monumental tantrums and kicking up storms.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that the climate pattern is already underway and that it is expected to continue strengthening throughout the Northern Hemisphere from now through the winter.
Odds remain high that this year’s El Niño event could become a “Super El Niño” by the end of autumn.
We talk a lot about the weather here, but that’s because it’s important—all the more so for those of us who are blessed to live in and around the Santa Monica Mountains. A strong El Niño year can cause wide-scale damage and destruction around the globe, but here in the Los Angeles area, communities on the coast and in the wildland interface are at the greatest risk of flooding, fire, and mudslides.
During El Niño, Pacific trade winds weaken, warm water is pushed towards the coast of the Americas, and the Pacific jet stream shifts southward, leaving the northern US and Canada with warmer, drier conditions, while bringing rain to the West, Southeast, and the Gulf Coast.
Here on the California Coast, an El Niño summer can mean more and bigger storms in the Eastern Pacific, increasing the potential for big waves and coastal hazards at local beaches. There’s even an increased chance that tropical storms will move up the coast bringing rare summer rain.
California’s coastal cold water acts as an important protection against hurricanes. A powerful El Niño condition weakens that barrier, increasing the odds of a summer storm traveling up the coast. It’s still a rare phenomenon, but it isn’t impossible, and it becomes more likely during conditions like the ones that are currently developing.
Summer rain would be far more welcome than extended periods of extremely hot weather and elevated fire risk, which are also potential outcomes of this wild weather year.
During the winter, the combination of moisture-laden tropical storms and cold Alaskan storm systems can generate atmospheric rivers of moisture directed straight at the West Coast, delivering what author Mike Davis, author of Ecology of Fear, famously described as the “Pineapple Express”, and “a big, wet kiss from Hawaii”.
None of this is good news for fire-scarred neighborhoods in Topanga, Pacific Palisades, and Malibu. Heavy rains combined with the damage caused by last year’s fire are a recipe for potentially dangerous flooding and prolonged road closures.
None of this is good news for the world, either. This weather pattern has the potential to impact billions of people with extreme rain and flooding, but also with extreme heat and elevated drought and wildfire risk.
The UN is encouraging the nations that are at risk to take immediate action to mitigate risk. Here in the US, federal weather research and emergency response and recovery agencies have been drastically cut or eliminated. It’s a terrible time for a major disaster.
El Niño is a recurring natural phenomenon, but all the data indicate that climate change is accelerating that cycle, making it more unstable, more dangerous and potentially deadly. Ignoring that data, firing the scientists that study it, and cutting the programs that monitor water temperatures and weather patterns, or the ones that help communities pick up the pieces after a disaster happens won’t make the problems we have created or exacerbated go away.
This El Niño is anticipated to peak in November, with ocean temperatures far exceeding ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) neutral levels. That’s the same time voters will be headed to the polls for the 2026 Primary Election. For those of us who value scientific research, funding for disaster relief and recovery, international cooperation, and programs intended to reverse or at least stem the pollution-related aspects of the climate crisis, the stakes have never been higher.
Electing like-minded people can potentially help with future El Niños. This year, we’re on our own. All we can do is tend to our own preparations at home and hope for the best. Maybe this El Niño won’t be so bad after all, or maybe it will be worse. Get ready!
Stay safe, be well.
